These are my notes from the CTO Breakfast this morning.
As usually things fly a mile a minute there, but there is a lot of information that get disseminated and a lot of learning that occurs.
Accelerating Change – Review by Scott Lemon
http://www.accelerationwatch.com/
John Smart - a series of substrate transitions.
Ray Kurszweil – says that if something doesn’t have a log curve it won’t survive, it may be an indicator of future developments, but if it doesn’t double it will be replaced.
Calculated Moors law based on electrical mechanical relays since 1900. He has abstracted all the way back to the abacus.
Law of accelerating returns, a network law that we use more powerful systems to implement more powerful systems.
Moore’s law isn’t linear in doubling it is actually
Verner Vinge – Mathematician by training, coined the term Singularity.
Asked the question, at which point, which he calls the singularity, will changes in the earth and our experience will happen faster than our senses ability to detect change.
Soft take off verses hard take off.
Soft takeoff- will we even notice when changes happen faster
Hard takeoff – we will walk into the office one morning and say wow, the world has changed.
What are the metrics to measure soft verse hard takeoffs.
Does you liver cell even know what it is a part of?
Computers cause humans to do work without any real interaction with humans.
UPS drivers are just actuators at the edge of a computer network.
Similarity to Dells server factory.
The dell server line workers and dell suppliers are driven by dells order system.
Dell’s suppliers have 90 minutes to comply with an order or dell goes with a different supplier.
Dell’s parts room consists of semi trucks from suppliers that backup to the assembly plant to be unloaded.
As one truck becomes depleted, the next truck moves into position.
Walmart consists of over 1% of China’s GNP.
We create advanced tools and use those tools to create the next generation of advanced tools.
Google has already lost control of the social impact they have on the world, and they will never regain it again.
Jeff Barr came and talked at BYU yesterday, and in the same way as Google, Amazon Web Services has/will loose control of the social impact of it’s web services.
Synthetic blood supersaturated by Oxygen.
In 2010 Intel will have a chip that will support 512 threads. Event driven programming will be the norm.
Utopia – DynamicCity presentation.
Joel Sybrowsky, Jeff Fishburn, and Ken Mormon
Singularity is like magic, and we (the geeks) all have understood how magic works.
In fiber-optics the next bits to come off the fiber will be cheaper than the bits currently coming off.
Government should put fiber in the ground and light it up and get out of the way and let innovation run.
The world would be very different if the AT&T breakup hadn’t require that AT&T allow any device to connect to its telephone network.
Ken Mormon is the architect of Utopia.
The Utopia project is being copied all over the place in all the western states and as far east as Virginia.
In a year to a year in a half Utopia will be joined by other markets such as Seattle.
How did DynamicCity choose where to start construction of Utopia?
Cities that co-signed the financial loan are the first to get deployed.
What is the governor on how fast Utopia builds out?
It is largely financial.
Competitors such as Qwest and Comcast motivated the legislature to limit the participation of cities in financially backing this deployment.
In urban areas elsewhere, trenching is a million dollars a mile, and there are seven legal negotiations per mile.
In Utah, laying fiber costs $30,000-40,000 miles per mile overhead, $130,000-160,000 per mile underground.
In the heart of Utah cities it may be as much as $300,000 per mile underground.
Manhattan, which has no dirt, pure concrete, it is going to cost at least a million a mile.
All cities and developers should be putting in conduit in all new construction area.
Underground deployment is 3 times the cost of overhead deployment but all new construction areas are deploying utilities underground.
So the cities should lay conduit in
In construction, do you buy it, lease it, or build it.
Fiber is plentiful along I-15, so Utopia leases it for long hauls.
Future topics include the importance of Q&A in projects such as Utopia.
The POTS network was/is “carrier grade”, how do we insure that Utopia is carrier grade.
Especially since the demarcation between the service providers and the “servers” they run on are so insulated and isolated from each other, especially in a network such as Utopia
