Entrepreneurship: Life Long Learning

Fall 2005 Book of the Semester
NewBook: “The New Chinese Empire: And What it Means for the United States

Author Lecture
“What Does China Want?”
Ross Terrill, associate in research, Fairbank Center for East Asian Research, Harvard University

Wednesday, 16 November
3:00 P.M.
Brigham Young University

Notes:

China will impinge on us in the years to come just as we impinge on China.
Story of three prisoners told in Beijing.
The middle prisoner asks one side what are you here for.

Expect the unexpected in China.
Deng Xiaoping did not expect Mao to turn on him.

The present Chinese leaders are not as daring as Deng and Mao.
They are more attentive
China once dominated Asia for 2000 years.

Qing or Manchu dynasty fell in 1911 due to western pressure and farmer’s revolt within China.
The pressure came to a head when Japan attacked China in the 1930’s.
Genera Chiang Kai-shek
‘China Shall Rise Again’ was written by the generals wife.
She said, “To be reborn the people must go through a trial of tribulations.”
Chiang Kai-shek failed and fled to Tiawan within 5 years.
China began to rise following Mao and was the Soviet Union’s little brother.
China fought strongly in the Korean War against the United States.

The China-Soviet partnership only lasted 20 years.

This was the end of Mao and Deng Xiaoping comes to power again.
The idea of smash the old, smash the bouwazi, smash religion was over

In the late 1970’s Deng Xiaoping pointed out that the rise of Mao hadn’t done much for the standard of living for the Chinese people.

Instead of exporting revolution, China decided to embrace economic development.
And China’s positive relationship with America began and has lasted for 30 years till today.

China farmers experience a quadrupling of income.
Economic growth is about 8% annual growth in GNP a year.
Foreign trade grows by about a quarter each year.

China understands that it’s destiny is to become a superpower.

China cozies up to Saddam and Zimbabwe which are shunned by the western world..
It asks nothing of theses outcast nations besides that they not support independence for Taiwan.

China is unable to give much in foreign aid.

90 cities in china with more than a million people

What are the aims of China?

But first China is still a Empire.
Three larges Provinces of China are Tibet, Shin Yang, part southern of Mongolia.
East Tajikistan.

The Qing dynasty boundaries were handed over to Mao.

China mandates that the whole country have the same timezone.
Yet the Muslims in the western part of the contry set their time to Tajikistan time in defiance.

China claims much more territory than it controls such as Taiwan and other neighboring islands.
China has residual claims to the eastern part of Siberia.

The emperor himself was a “Father to the nation.”
China condescends to it neighboring nations in an imperial fashion.

1) In its foreign policy today its first aim is to protect it’s realm.
America does not have this problem.
China has to make sure that the Muslim population in the west, that the Dali llama, and Mongolia don’t encourage neighboring provinces to rebel.

2) China wants to protect their economic progress.
President Bush carries
Americans consume 25% of China’s exports.
China is not so
In 2001 China enters the WTO.
In 1996 during elections in Tiawan, China was upset that a pro-independence candidate may win. They shot

3) China wants to maintain peace.
Many of China’s neighbors were once part of the Soviet Union.
China has to deal with 14 neighboring nations and has practiced a policy of compromise.
America only has to deal with 2, Canada and Mexico.

China in the past used to fight militarily with its neighbors.

1979 skirmish with Vietnam was the last depiction of China’s bully attitude.

4) China wants to replace the United States as the chief influence in eastern Asia.
China did not veto President Bushes expulsion of Saddam from Kuwait.
They try to remove the influence of the United States
East Asian powers will meet for the first time without including the United States. This is China’s ideas.

5) China wants to get back territories they have lost. Hence they are still a empire.
In the case of Tiawan, China is waiting for the opportune moment.

They are waiting for the United States

Most empires fail in achieving their goals.
China’s success depends on two points.
1) Will the Chinese political system endure?
The next drama involving china will not be internation. It will be withing.
The internet and cell phone provides a window to the outside world.
Rural citizens are unhappy and are being told conflicting stories.
150 million Chinese are hovering between rural and city life.
Much of the population is aging, and families of 3 with only one child are not able to take care of the aged.
Many

China may continue economic development.
China may continue to be a Stalinist ruled nation.
But not both.
Within 25 years either the economic or the political strategy will go.

2) When a new number one makes a bid three, things are needed.
Ambition, China has this.
Capacity, China does not have this, but it has the possibilities of achieving this.
Acquiescence of the other powers, China does not have this nor will they probably get this.

Japan wanted a empire like, Britian and France.
Only after Pearl Harbor was Japan given the message that the western world would not allow this.

America has has some moderate political China policies differences with Carter and Reagan it has largely remained the same.
Stability since Nixon, because

1) Washington’s power eclipses Beijing.
2) China faces the problems of multiple hostile neighbor nations.
3) Chinese see the tasks of internal stability as the number one priority.

The world views American Interests in keeping China and Japan in bound as good for them also.

Being number one has it’s costs/
China has had the victim status for some time.
By 2025 China expect 100 million citizens will vacation abroad of China.
If so Chinese will become the

Britian achieved number one with it’s military.
USA achieved number on with it’s business sense, military, and culture.

Soft power.
1) Get standing ovation in G8 summit. Position on the Internation Court. Seat on the commission for human rights. This power comes only to the elite by the elite.
2) Attracting students to you country, your culture is in demand, your businesses are respected and preferred. This power comes from the common man and all world peoples.

China is doing well with the first soft power. It is an elite nation.
The second soft power China cannot deliver for itself.

China understands that the world favors the United States remaining the number one, and doesn’t want China in that position.

Thank you.

Questions:
1)What are the trump cards China and the United States hold.?
China nuclear weapons can reach L.A.

The USA holds many more trump cards than China.
United States economy is seven times China’s.
In the 80’s we were told Japan would over take us, they didn’t.
Everyone told Reagan that we were over extended. Our overextension was the cause of the fall of the Soviet Union not our fall.

The task for the future is to find areas of commonality and integrating with China.
Because of geography the United States has a better chance of long term positive relations with China than Japan or Russia.

2) China the government and the Chinese people and culture are very different.
Chinese culture is sustained because of family values and confusionism.
They are not very good at politics.
China is remarkable in that it’s political system is always able to reconstitute itself. However it continues to repeatedly destroy itself also.

3)
The worry of Asian countries should not be that China will withhold economic support by stop purchasing their products.
The worry of Asian countries should that Chinese economic prosperity will lead to the return of the “Middle Kingdom”

Vietnam was told by their exiled leader recently that they should worry about becoming a economic subservient of China.
Burma is a sphere of influence of China. No one cares about Burma because it is a dictatorship like, Saddam and Zimbabwe.
So China helps Burma in order to add Burma to it’s “allies”.
Japan and Indonesia won’t accept being spheres of influence of China.

4)
If we changed our policy towards Tiawan.
Tiawan is not a small fish in the pond.
If Mao had taken Tiawan in 1949, we wouldn’t have resisted.

Tiawan today 22-24 Million people. The 14th largest trading nation in the world.

Japan would not be in the same stance toward us, if the PRC made a grab at Tiawan and we did nothing.

Our military says that China puts 700 new missiles pointed at Tiawan each year.
There is a chance that something may happen through computer warfare that the United States would not have a chance to react.
Computer warfare such as the Tiawan systems all going down.

However time is also not in China’s favor in terms of retaining a Stalinist government.

For China to continue to improve economically they must quit putting money in the bank.
The Chinese doesn’t have as much confidence in their future as you would think. If they did, they would spend their money instead of putting it in the bank.

5) What do you thing of Chinese businesses making offers for American companies and starting to invent their own technology.
I don’t think there is anything wrong with China making offers for companies such as Unical.
Our international companies are really no longer “American owned companies” anymore and I suspect Chinese companies will likewise not be solely owned and controlled by the Chinese.

On your second point, the Chinese are not up to scratch on development of technology and hence they are dependent on us.

6) China has a fast rate of change with respect to economics, but not in Human rights.
?Jo Jen Chou? went to North Korea for his foreign education.
The top nine leaders of China are all Engineers. I don’t think they are wide ranging thinkers.
They fiddle with the nuts and bolts, but we don’t get any progress from them.
They have started and stopped to separate Government controll from human rights.
They do this because

You don’t have rights until you have a government that is periodically accountable to the people.

There is no freedom of association in China. A religious group cannot meet.

Human rights come from democracy.
Condoleezza Rice said the largest victory in human rights in the last century came with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
We underestimate the power of the words of U.S. Presidents when they visit China.
Chinese find ways to get the full text of censured speeches of foreign dignitaries when Chinese officials say they publish “The full text”.
Vice President Chaney’s speech in China last year was censured even though it said it was the full text, but the Chinese find ways to get real complete text.

7) What about the one child policy?
The one child policy has loop holes.
If you have money to pay the fines, you can have 2 or 4 children.
There are exceptions for illness, divorce, and Tibetans.
The problem is the number of Chinese over 65.
These grandparents won’t have as many grandchildren around to care for them.
China is building old age homes to take care of theses people. This is a first for the strong family values of China.

People are starting to buy things and they want clear property rights and ownership which are not possible because all the land is effectively leased.
This is a problem and people are starting to realize.

8) What do you think about China’s recent successful space program, what does the United State think about this?
I don’t think the US has major problems. However the US is interested in asking what China’s long term goals and interests are.
(The talk centered on what Ross Terrill thinks those goals are.)